The Autonomy Whitepaper by movingfutures presents a quantitative assessment of how public transport fleets in Europe could transition from manually driven vehicles to autonomous buses and shuttles. The analysis covers 28 European countries and models fleet evolution over a 20-year timeframe, taking into account vehicle replacement cycles, operating and capital costs, and different levels of automation. Rather than proposing a single outcome, the white paper compares multiple transition pathways, highlighting the conditions under which autonomous vehicles become economically relevant for public transport systems.
The white paper is primarily addressed to public transport authorities, operators, and policymakers involved in planning, financing or regulating public transport services. It is also relevant for organisations working on employment, skills and training, as it provides a structured view of how automation may progressively reshape public transport operations. By clarifying the expected timing and scale of fleet transitions, the analysis helps frame discussions on workforce impacts, including changes in roles, responsibilities and competence requirements.
To support practical use of the analysis, movingfutures has developed the Autonomous Vehicle Transition Simulator, an online tool that applies the same modelling framework used in the white paper. The simulator allows users to test different assumptions—such as cost developments, fleet replacement rates and adoption strategies—and to visualise how autonomous vehicle deployment could evolve over time in specific contexts. This makes it possible to compare conservative, moderate and more ambitious scenarios using a consistent methodological basis.
For RESKILLING, these resources are relevant as background evidence for understanding how technological deployment trajectories intersect with workforce planning. By linking automation scenarios to concrete timelines and system-level changes, they support informed reflection on reskilling needs, organisational adaptation and the design of accompanying measures to manage the transition in public transport employment.